Wind RazorgaleTier 1
at Ascent Las Vegas
decks
32
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
266
139-102-25
overall winrate
57.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1392
· median 1370
· range 1211–1678
(32 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1417
1694
41% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
3% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 16 | 10-5-1 | 65.6% | 62.5% | 61.2% | +4.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.5% | 15 | 10-4-1 | 70.0% | 65.8% | 62.0% | +4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.2% | 32 | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 40.3% | 38.6% | -4.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 13 | 8-4-1 | 65.4% | 61.8% | 62.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 37.3% | -5.9 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 14 | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 41.7% | 33.6% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 14 | 3-8-3 | 32.1% | 36.1% | 35.8% | -5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 44.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.1% | +3.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 27.7% | -9.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.4% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 54.0% | +1.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.4% | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 36.2% | -5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 33.6% | -9.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 13 | 9-4-0 | 69.2% | 64.7% | 62.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +5.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 58.9% | +4.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 8 | 5-0-3 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 76.1% | +12.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.6% | +15.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.9% | +6.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 70.6% | +11.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.9% | +20.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 69.4% | +14.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
Decklists · 32 from this event
The 32 public Wind Razorgale decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 18 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Safeguard Amulet, Tariff Ring. Losers more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Tempest Downfall, Innervate Agility.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 18 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 13.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 18 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 11.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 18 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 13.
Calming Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 18 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 4.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 18 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 12.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 18 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 5.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 18 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 18 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 8.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 18 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 14.
Stifling Trap
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 18 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 5.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 18 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 7.
Show all 77 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.28 | 4 | 9 | 3 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.22 | 2 | 6 | 3 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.22 | 3 | 7 | 8 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.22 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.17 | 4 | 1 | 13 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 5 | 8 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.17 | 4 | 1 | 12 | |
| Zephyr | -0.17 | 4 | 7 | 7 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.17 | 5 | 8 | 5 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.17 | 3 | 6 | 5 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.17 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | -0.17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.11 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cyclical Breeze | -0.11 | 5 | 7 | 6 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.11 | 4 | 6 | 7 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.11 | 1 | 3 | 10 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | +0.11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Gray Slime | +0.11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.11 | 6 | 4 | 7 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | -0.11 | 4 | 6 | 0 | |
| Alchemist's Cauldron | +0.11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 7 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 11 | |
| Obscured Offering | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 13 | |
| Speed Potion | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Floral Arrangement | +0.06 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 17 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.06 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Three Visits | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Distilled Water | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| Galestream Insight | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Protector Raccoon | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bandit, Gaze Leader | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blessed Clergy | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Alchemist | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Combustible Potion | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Animate | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Soothing Potion | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revealing Mesmer | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tend the Land | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expeditious Opening | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Equinox Hour | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 16 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 16 | |
| Stifling Gyre | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 7 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |